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Las Palmas 4–1 Lugo

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Abraham Dominguez Cervantes, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas win47%2.04
Draw30%3.27
Lugo win23%4.20

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Rubén Castro · Las Palmas
31'⚽Alberto de la Bella · Las Palmas
37'⚽Rubén Castro · Las Palmas
44'🟨Sergio Gil · Lugo
58'🟨Sergio Araujo · Las Palmas
79'⚽Maikel Mesa · Las Palmas
83'🟨Cristian Herrera · Lugo
90'⚽Juan Muñiz · Lugo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
16Shots11
10On target3
6Corners2
21Fouls15
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLas PalmasLugo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.29
box share (last 5)0.560.52
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days58.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGran Canaria
209.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.162.88
elo1394.651396.88
elo momentum (last 5)-26.383.89
eye test v1-0.64-0.27
eye trend v1-0.250.07
first sub minute (last 10)60.4061.30
form points (last 5)2.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.631.23
keeper form v10.470.59
league points43.0037.00
league rank13.0019.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet6.001.00
matches since win6.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2069.00
possession avg (last 5)54.0045.60
rest days8.008.08
scorer concentration0.310.20
season ppg1.231.06
skill v10.20-1.12
sot against avg (last 5)5.203.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.00
state index-1.10-0.38
sterile dominance v10.58-0.98
threat rate (last 10)0.220.27
threat rate (last 3)0.190.27
threat rate (last 5)0.190.29
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.20