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CA Osasuna 2–0 Albacete

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luis Pulido Santana, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CA Osasuna win56%1.74
Draw27%3.53
Albacete win17%5.65

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

32'🟨Eugeni Valderrama · Albacete
37'🟨Daniel Torres · Albacete
59'🟨Juan Villar · CA Osasuna
61'🟨Angel Moreno · Albacete
65'🟨Daniel Torres · Albacete
65'🟥Daniel Torres · Albacete
66'🟨Fran Mérida · CA Osasuna
69'⚽Unai García · CA Osasuna
77'🟥Roman Zozulya · Albacete
78'⚽ (pen)Roberto Torres · CA Osasuna

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
19Shots3
10On target0
7Corners3
20Fouls22
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCA OsasunaAlbacete
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.500.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.560.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.470.44
box share (last 5)0.590.45
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days330.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio El Sadar
330.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.842.40
elo1571.481535.02
elo momentum (last 5)4.1623.25
eye test v10.15-0.06
eye trend v1-0.520.25
first sub minute (last 10)60.4068.10
form points (last 5)10.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.401.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.40
keeper form v10.770.83
league points70.0064.00
league rank1.002.00
matches since blank20.006.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.6076.80
possession avg (last 5)51.2050.60
rest days4.887.00
scorer concentration0.230.26
season ppg2.001.83
skill v1-0.570.04
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.703.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.20
state index0.520.42
sterile dominance v1-0.100.35
threat rate (last 10)0.270.21
threat rate (last 3)0.170.19
threat rate (last 5)0.230.20
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.40