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Tenerife 1–3 Almeria

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui Fernandez Orte, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win41%2.36
Draw32%3.01
Almeria win27%3.64

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Álvaro Giménez · Almeria
17'🟨Borja Lasso · Tenerife
21'🟨Juan Carlos · Almeria
25'🟨Jorge Sáenz · Tenerife
45'🟨Mauro Dos Santos · Tenerife
45'🟨Yan Eteki · Almeria
53'🟨Dani Hernández · Tenerife
54'⚽ (pen)Álvaro Giménez · Almeria
58'⚽Luis Rioja · Almeria
77'⚽José Naranjo · Tenerife
79'🟨Suso · Tenerife
82'🟨Alberto Jiménez · Tenerife
90'🟨Ermedin Demirovic · Almeria

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
8Shots8
2On target3
3Corners4
13Fouls12
6Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTenerifeAlmeria
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.27
box share (last 5)0.510.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days232.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHeliodoro Rodríguez López
781.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.321.48
elo1455.461475.22
elo momentum (last 5)26.38-1.66
eye test v10.51-0.46
eye trend v10.240.19
first sub minute (last 10)60.6065.40
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.23
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
keeper form v10.710.79
league points40.0049.00
league rank17.0010.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.8066.40
possession avg (last 5)53.0046.20
rest days7.988.08
scorer concentration0.180.29
season ppg1.181.44
skill v10.20-1.35
sot against avg (last 5)5.202.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.303.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.60
state index0.05-0.04
sterile dominance v1-0.26-1.07
threat rate (last 10)0.260.31
threat rate (last 3)0.310.32
threat rate (last 5)0.300.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.40