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Oviedo 3–3 Cordoba

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Damaso Arcediano Monescillo, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win67%1.43
Draw22%4.33
Cordoba win11%9.16

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Ibrahima Baldé · Oviedo
7'🟨Àlex Carbonell · Cordoba
9'⚽Saúl Berjón · Oviedo
39'⚽Federico Piovaccari · Cordoba
47'🟨Jimmy Suárez · Oviedo
59'🟨Miguel De las Cuevas · Cordoba
67'🟨Oswaldo Alanís · Oviedo
68'⚽Alejandro Alfaro · Cordoba
78'🟨Carlos Hernández · Oviedo
83'⚽Joselu · Oviedo
87'⚽Andrés Martín · Cordoba
89'🟨Javier Muñoz · Oviedo
89'🟨Álex Menéndez · Cordoba

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
11Shots11
5On target6
4Corners3
19Fouls18
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoCordoba
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.20
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.26
box share (last 5)0.490.52
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days659.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCarlos Tartiere
171.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.492.32
elo1488.721339.42
elo momentum (last 5)0.84-16.85
eye test v1-0.49-1.12
eye trend v1-0.010.03
first sub minute (last 10)62.1056.90
form points (last 5)8.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.602.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.94
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.760.59
league points52.0026.00
league rank9.0021.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.009.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.8070.20
possession avg (last 5)52.4049.80
rest days7.757.00
scorer concentration0.180.28
season ppg1.530.76
skill v1-0.26-0.71
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.602.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.602.40
state index0.04-0.99
sterile dominance v10.650.11
threat rate (last 10)0.160.18
threat rate (last 3)0.170.20
threat rate (last 5)0.150.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80