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Cadiz 2–1 Numancia

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alvaro Moreno Aragon

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win58%1.67
Draw27%3.63
Numancia win16%6.18

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Ager Aketxe · Cadiz
11'⚽Jairo Izquierdo · Cadiz
41'🟨Unai Medina · Numancia
44'🟨Pape Maly Diamanka · Numancia
50'⚽David Rodriguez · Numancia
73'🟨Alejandro Sanz · Numancia
87'🟨Unai Medina · Numancia
87'🟥Unai Medina · Numancia
88'🟨David Rodriguez · Numancia
90'🟨Darwin Machís · Cadiz
90'🟨Juan Carlos · Numancia
90'⚽Darwin Machís · Cadiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots5
5On target2
12Corners3
13Fouls17
2Yellow cards6
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCadizNumancia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.26
box share (last 5)0.570.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1115.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Ramon de Carranza
324.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.812.67
elo1538.981421.81
elo momentum (last 5)5.95-24.10
eye test v1-0.25-1.09
eye trend v1-0.030.19
first sub minute (last 10)50.2054.60
form points (last 5)9.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.060.63
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
keeper form v10.650.58
league points56.0040.00
league rank6.0015.00
matches since blank5.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.007.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.8078.00
possession avg (last 5)49.6055.80
rest days6.676.83
scorer concentration0.210.30
season ppg1.651.18
skill v1-0.450.51
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.302.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.802.00
state index0.35-0.79
sterile dominance v1-0.411.09
threat rate (last 10)0.280.16
threat rate (last 3)0.260.12
threat rate (last 5)0.270.15
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80