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Lugo 1–2 Granada

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Granada win38%2.53
Draw34%2.86
Lugo win28%3.49

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'🟨Daniel Ojeda · Granada
35'🟨Giorgi Aburjania · Lugo
36'⚽Álvaro Vadillo · Granada
62'🟨Miguel Vieira · Lugo
62'🟨Antonio Puertas · Granada
72'⚽ (pen)Adrian Ramos · Granada
75'⚽Cristian Herrera · Lugo
76'🟨Ángel Montoro · Granada
90'🟨Alejandro Pozo · Granada

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots9
2On target4
10Corners3
30Fouls15
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLugoGranada
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.22
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.21
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
box share (last 5)0.480.44
cards avg (last 5)3.403.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAnxo Carro
coach days201.00323.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.400.00
corners against avg (last 5)8.004.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.604.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.552.20
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.11
dominance (last 5)0.510.53
elo1427.861526.43
elo momentum (last 5)16.89-23.73
eye test v1-0.19-0.83
eye trend v10.070.29
first sub minute (last 10)63.2056.00
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.230.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.35
keeper form v10.610.74
league points38.0061.00
league rank19.003.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.6075.60
possession avg (last 5)45.6056.40
rest days6.007.79
scorer concentration0.210.29
season ppg1.091.69
shot diff avg (last 5)1.402.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.0011.00
skill v1-1.050.30
sot against avg (last 5)3.602.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.902.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.202.80
squad age25.5827.57
state index-0.13-0.36
sterile dominance v1-0.930.64
threat rate (last 10)0.260.21
threat rate (last 3)0.240.22
threat rate (last 5)0.290.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.80