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Numancia 1–1 Mallorca

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Valentin Pizarro Gomez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mallorca win37%2.63
Numancia win32%3.06
Draw31%3.09

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽ (og)Joan Sastre · Numancia
33'🟨Gus Ledes · Numancia
57'🟨Salvador Ruiz · Mallorca
59'🟨Marc Pedraza · Mallorca
62'🟨Dani Rodríguez · Mallorca
84'🟨Ante Budimir · Mallorca
90'🟨Pelayo Suarez · Numancia
90'⚽Salva Sevilla · Mallorca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
5Shots8
3On target2
1Corners6
15Fouls15
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNumanciaMallorca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.37
box share (last 5)0.660.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days317.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLos Pajaritos
743.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.632.59
elo1421.641487.55
elo momentum (last 5)-22.9624.52
eye test v1-0.520.66
eye trend v1-0.190.36
first sub minute (last 10)53.0055.30
form points (last 5)5.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.001.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.940.95
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
keeper form v10.650.68
league points39.0054.00
league rank16.006.00
matches since blank0.008.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0078.60
possession avg (last 5)60.0049.20
rest days6.927.67
scorer concentration0.300.23
season ppg1.181.64
skill v10.900.13
sot against avg (last 5)4.002.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.004.50
sot for avg (last 3)1.676.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.205.60
state index-0.610.19
sterile dominance v11.23-0.46
threat rate (last 10)0.180.27
threat rate (last 3)0.130.31
threat rate (last 5)0.170.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00