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Cadiz 3–3 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2018 · Mon, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win51%1.91
Draw30%3.17
Zaragoza win19%5.11

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'🟨Álex Muñoz · Zaragoza
16'⚽Pep Biel · Zaragoza
37'⚽Pep Biel · Zaragoza
45'⚽Darwin Machís · Cadiz
47'⚽Carlos Nieto · Zaragoza
53'🟨Sergio Sánchez · Cadiz
59'🟨Alberto Guitián · Zaragoza
61'⚽Ager Aketxe · Cadiz
62'🟨Pep Biel · Zaragoza
65'🟨Vincenzo Rennella · Cadiz
69'🟨Diogo Verdasca · Zaragoza
71'🟨James Igbekeme · Zaragoza
74'🟨Julián Delmás · Zaragoza
90'🟨Álvaro Vázquez · Zaragoza
90'⚽ (pen)Álex Fernández · Cadiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
16Shots14
5On target7
6Corners3
15Fouls14
2Yellow cards7
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCadizZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.20
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.22
box share (last 5)0.690.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1102.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Ramon de Carranza
128.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.063.14
elo1527.591448.62
elo momentum (last 5)-9.65-13.20
eye test v1-0.34-0.28
eye trend v1-0.16-0.14
first sub minute (last 10)51.5051.60
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.05
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
keeper form v10.670.83
league points52.0037.00
league rank7.0016.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.4082.20
possession avg (last 5)48.0058.40
rest days8.887.00
scorer concentration0.240.27
season ppg1.631.16
skill v1-1.021.12
sot against avg (last 5)2.405.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.703.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.40
state index0.10-0.40
sterile dominance v1-0.760.75
threat rate (last 10)0.260.26
threat rate (last 3)0.250.25
threat rate (last 5)0.280.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80