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Granada 1–0 Málaga CF

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Granada win39%2.50
Draw34%2.82
Málaga CF win27%3.61

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Antonio Puertas · Granada
20'🟨Alfred N'Diaye · Málaga CF
27'🟨Fede San Emeterio · Granada
27'🟨Luis Hernández · Málaga CF
33'🟨Ángel Montoro · Granada
38'🟨Iván Alejo · Málaga CF
39'🟨Quini · Granada
47'🟨Alfred N'Diaye · Málaga CF
47'🟥Alfred N'Diaye · Málaga CF
74'🟨Federico Ricca · Málaga CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots12
2On target3
1Corners4
14Fouls16
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGranadaMálaga CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.200.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.470.59
cards avg (last 5)2.803.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNuevo Los Cármenes
coach days309.005.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.804.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.603.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.407.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.352.94
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.17
dominance (last 5)0.470.58
elo1535.051526.09
elo momentum (last 5)8.81-6.64
eye test v1-0.92-0.32
eye trend v1-0.200.02
first sub minute (last 10)54.6055.90
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.42
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.710.78
league points58.0057.00
league rank4.005.00
matches since blank2.006.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.6077.20
possession avg (last 5)48.0054.60
rest days6.967.75
scorer concentration0.260.21
season ppg1.761.68
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.403.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.2012.60
skill v1-0.470.35
sot against avg (last 5)2.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.203.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.60
squad age26.2526.51
state index0.11-0.03
sterile dominance v10.060.41
threat rate (last 10)0.220.24
threat rate (last 3)0.170.24
threat rate (last 5)0.200.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.80