⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Las Palmas 0–1 Elche CF

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Victor Areces Franco, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas win53%1.81
Draw28%3.44
Elche CF win18%5.24

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'🟨Juan Cala · Las Palmas
19'🟨Josan · Elche CF
22'🟨Karim Azamoum · Elche CF
28'🟨Álvaro Lemos · Las Palmas
37'🟨Gabriel Peñalba · Las Palmas
38'🟨Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Las Palmas
54'🟨Aythami Artiles · Las Palmas
63'🟨Nacho Gil · Elche CF
84'⚽Carlos Castro · Elche CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots6
4On target4
2Corners2
14Fouls25
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLas PalmasElche CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.29
box share (last 5)0.550.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days30.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGran Canaria
423.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.521.71
elo1425.641424.55
elo momentum (last 5)-5.9422.84
eye test v10.11-0.78
eye trend v1-0.10-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)63.2058.60
form points (last 5)5.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.480.82
keeper form v10.760.70
league points42.0039.00
league rank12.0013.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2072.60
possession avg (last 5)56.2045.40
rest days6.968.13
scorer concentration0.310.33
season ppg1.351.26
skill v10.35-0.75
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.00
state index-0.46-0.07
sterile dominance v10.35-0.26
threat rate (last 10)0.240.22
threat rate (last 3)0.220.20
threat rate (last 5)0.240.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00