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Oviedo 1–1 RC Deportivo La Coruña

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Cesar Soto Grado, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Draw34%2.85
Oviedo win33%2.92
RC Deportivo La Coruña win33%2.97

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Yoel Bárcenas · Oviedo
45'🟨Mossa · Oviedo
50'🟨Christian Fernández · Oviedo
53'⚽Quique · RC Deportivo La Coruña
57'🟨Ramon Folch · Oviedo
59'🟨Álex Bergantiños · RC Deportivo La Coruña
86'🟨Nereo Champagne · Oviedo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
9Shots10
3On target3
6Corners4
18Fouls17
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoRC Deportivo La Coruña
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.460.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.32
box share (last 5)0.580.61
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days638.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCarlos Tartiere
303.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.962.15
elo1486.841508.99
elo momentum (last 5)-12.65-13.48
eye test v1-1.180.15
eye trend v1-0.14-0.02
first sub minute (last 10)64.0066.90
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.940.88
keeper form v10.790.81
league points47.0053.00
league rank8.005.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.0078.00
possession avg (last 5)51.6058.20
rest days6.848.83
scorer concentration0.190.26
season ppg1.521.71
skill v1-0.290.67
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.404.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.404.60
state index0.00-0.08
sterile dominance v10.880.51
threat rate (last 10)0.160.23
threat rate (last 3)0.110.23
threat rate (last 5)0.120.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.602.00