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Cordoba 3–2 Mallorca

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Antonio Lopez Toca

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mallorca win41%2.39
Cordoba win30%3.22
Draw29%3.31

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Federico Piovaccari · Cordoba
10'🟨Pervis Estupiñán · Mallorca
33'🟨Federico Piovaccari · Cordoba
45'🟨Yann Bodiger · Cordoba
45'🟨Luis Muñoz · Cordoba
60'⚽Ariday · Mallorca
66'⚽Federico Piovaccari · Cordoba
74'⚽Miguel De las Cuevas · Cordoba
85'🟨Jaime Romero · Cordoba
89'⚽ (og)Álex Menéndez · Mallorca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots15
4On target4
3Corners5
15Fouls14
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCordobaMallorca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.44
box share (last 5)0.560.59
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days150.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Arcángel
729.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.932.62
elo1354.191495.86
elo momentum (last 5)-22.7629.86
eye test v1-1.000.57
eye trend v10.040.43
first sub minute (last 10)62.4056.90
form points (last 5)2.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.201.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.571.08
keeper form v10.550.71
league points23.0051.00
league rank21.007.00
matches since blank2.006.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win6.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.0076.00
possession avg (last 5)50.6045.20
rest days6.715.58
scorer concentration0.240.24
season ppg0.741.65
skill v1-0.36-0.41
sot against avg (last 5)5.203.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.804.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.676.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.405.60
state index-1.310.30
sterile dominance v10.55-0.66
threat rate (last 10)0.180.26
threat rate (last 3)0.180.32
threat rate (last 5)0.150.29
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.00