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Numancia 2–1 Granada

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Ocon Arraiz, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Draw34%2.88
Numancia win34%2.89
Granada win33%2.97

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Fede San Emeterio · Granada
47'⚽Pichu Atienza · Numancia
50'🟨Adrián Castellano · Granada
52'⚽ (pen)David Rodriguez · Numancia
68'🟨Pape Maly Diamanka · Numancia
73'🟨Alejandro Pozo · Granada
75'⚽Antonio Puertas · Granada
76'🟨Gus Ledes · Numancia
90'🟨Nicolás Aguirre · Granada

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
7Shots8
3On target2
3Corners7
16Fouls16
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNumanciaGranada
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.25
box share (last 5)0.630.45
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days302.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLos Pajaritos
302.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.452.36
elo1427.711529.73
elo momentum (last 5)-17.7922.15
eye test v1-0.47-0.79
eye trend v10.12-0.15
first sub minute (last 10)52.4055.40
form points (last 5)5.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.801.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.05
keeper form v10.670.78
league points36.0058.00
league rank15.002.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win4.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2074.00
possession avg (last 5)60.0047.20
rest days6.255.92
scorer concentration0.310.24
season ppg1.161.87
skill v11.02-0.48
sot against avg (last 5)4.002.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.00
state index-0.700.31
sterile dominance v11.04-0.12
threat rate (last 10)0.200.22
threat rate (last 3)0.190.19
threat rate (last 5)0.200.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.60