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Mallorca 3–0 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2018 · Mon, Mar 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver de la Fuente Ramos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mallorca win50%1.93
Draw28%3.48
Zaragoza win22%4.38

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

37'🟨Ante Budimir · Mallorca
39'🟨Carlos Nieto · Zaragoza
45'⚽Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca
73'🟨Carlos Nieto · Zaragoza
73'🟥Carlos Nieto · Zaragoza
74'🟨Íñigo Eguaras · Zaragoza
78'⚽Abdón Prats · Mallorca
80'🟨Joan Sastre · Mallorca
83'⚽Ariday · Mallorca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
18Shots12
10On target1
5Corners3
13Fouls19
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMallorcaZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.25
box share (last 5)0.600.51
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days723.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueIberostar Estadi
114.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.033.77
elo1482.841451.80
elo momentum (last 5)28.25-16.37
eye test v10.28-0.15
eye trend v10.23-0.28
first sub minute (last 10)57.4054.70
form points (last 5)11.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.88
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
keeper form v10.740.77
league points48.0034.00
league rank7.0017.00
matches since blank5.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4081.80
possession avg (last 5)45.4057.20
rest days8.049.02
scorer concentration0.260.30
season ppg1.601.13
skill v1-0.461.00
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.60
state index0.51-0.42
sterile dominance v1-0.690.60
threat rate (last 10)0.260.26
threat rate (last 3)0.300.22
threat rate (last 5)0.290.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.00