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Granada 1–1 Las Palmas

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Mar 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alvaro Moreno Aragon

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Granada win51%1.89
Draw30%3.22
Las Palmas win19%5.16

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Eric Curbelo · Las Palmas
42'🟨Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Las Palmas
47'🟨Ángel Montoro · Granada
50'🟨Rodri · Granada
57'🟨David Timor · Las Palmas
63'🟨Maikel Mesa · Las Palmas
72'⚽David Timor · Las Palmas
81'🟨Germán Sánchez · Granada
87'🟨Adrian Ramos · Granada
90'🟨Alberto de la Bella · Las Palmas
90'⚽Quini · Granada

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots9
5On target3
6Corners1
15Fouls22
4Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGranadaLas Palmas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.37
box share (last 5)0.540.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days296.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNuevo Los Cármenes
23.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.303.31
elo1534.341421.03
elo momentum (last 5)35.23-0.35
eye test v1-0.970.31
eye trend v1-0.120.16
first sub minute (last 10)55.6063.40
form points (last 5)13.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.101.15
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.790.76
league points57.0041.00
league rank2.0012.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.6076.40
possession avg (last 5)48.2054.60
rest days7.087.00
scorer concentration0.250.32
season ppg1.901.37
skill v1-0.350.26
sot against avg (last 5)1.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.304.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.605.00
state index0.61-0.35
sterile dominance v10.090.12
threat rate (last 10)0.220.24
threat rate (last 3)0.190.26
threat rate (last 5)0.200.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.60