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RC Deportivo La Coruña 0–0 Almeria

← Segunda División 2018 · Fri, Mar 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Jesus Trujillo Suarez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Deportivo La Coruña win58%1.67
Draw28%3.41
Almeria win14%6.92

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'🟨Esteban Saveljich · Almeria
44'🟨Vicente Gómez · RC Deportivo La Coruña
52'🟨César de la Hoz · Almeria
82'🟨Renê · Almeria
84'🟨Federico Cartabia · RC Deportivo La Coruña
84'🟨Álvaro Giménez · Almeria

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots10
3On target2
6Corners4
14Fouls18
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRC Deportivo La CoruñaAlmeria
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.32
box share (last 5)0.540.66
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days294.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Riazor
751.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.232.00
elo1511.661476.80
elo momentum (last 5)-16.9320.38
eye test v10.03-0.18
eye trend v10.140.04
first sub minute (last 10)66.5064.90
form points (last 5)6.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.03
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
keeper form v10.800.82
league points52.0044.00
league rank4.009.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0066.20
possession avg (last 5)55.4040.80
rest days5.885.13
scorer concentration0.260.27
season ppg1.731.47
skill v10.48-1.73
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.20
state index-0.190.07
sterile dominance v10.35-1.58
threat rate (last 10)0.240.28
threat rate (last 3)0.280.28
threat rate (last 5)0.240.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.60