← Segunda División 2018 · Mon, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gorka Sagues Oscoz, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Draw | 35% | 2.79 |
| Numancia win | 33% | 2.91 |
| Málaga CF win | 32% | 3.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ | Pape Maly Diamanka · Numancia |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nacho Sánchez · Numancia |
| 49' | ⚽ | Federico Ricca · Málaga CF |
| 58' | 🟨 | Alberto Escassi · Numancia |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ivan Rodríguez · Málaga CF |
| 76' | 🟨 | Iván Alejo · Málaga CF |
| 79' | 🟨 | Higinio Marín · Numancia |
| 80' | 🟨 | Pau Torres · Málaga CF |
| 80' | 🟨 | Alfred N'Diaye · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 9 |
| 14 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Numancia | Málaga CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.00 |
| venue | Los Pajaritos |
| coach days | 290.00 | 290.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1454.75 | 1522.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.97 | -6.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| league points | 36.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.54 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.60 | 26.16 |
| state index | -0.41 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.01 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |