⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Zaragoza 1–0 Elche CF

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Mario Milla Alvendiz

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win47%2.04
Draw29%3.34
Elche CF win24%4.09

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Miguel Linares · Zaragoza
7'🟨Alberto Soro · Zaragoza
13'🟨Gonzalo Verdú · Elche CF
33'🟨Alexander González · Elche CF
35'🟨Diego Aguirre · Zaragoza
37'🟨Pep Biel · Zaragoza
59'🟨Julián Delmás · Zaragoza
84'🟨Manuel Sánchez · Elche CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots10
3On target2
4Corners5
16Fouls15
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaElche CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.27
box share (last 5)0.490.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days105.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLa Romareda
408.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.861.85
elo1444.221418.38
elo momentum (last 5)-13.9521.16
eye test v1-0.07-0.69
eye trend v1-0.45-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)58.7054.30
form points (last 5)4.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.940.42
keeper form v10.760.71
league points31.0036.00
league rank18.0013.00
matches since blank0.0012.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.4072.20
possession avg (last 5)57.6046.20
rest days6.107.00
scorer concentration0.310.36
season ppg1.071.24
skill v10.99-0.74
sot against avg (last 5)5.403.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.20
state index-0.58-0.15
sterile dominance v10.61-0.37
threat rate (last 10)0.260.20
threat rate (last 3)0.190.22
threat rate (last 5)0.240.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00