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Albacete 1–0 Extremadura

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Victor Areces Franco, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Albacete win47%2.06
Draw31%3.15
Extremadura win22%4.37

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'🟨Roberto Olabe · Extremadura
33'🟨Daniel Torres · Albacete
43'🟨— · Albacete
60'🟨Fran Cruz · Extremadura
66'🟨Fausto Tienza · Extremadura
76'🟨— · Extremadura
81'🟨Roberto Olabe · Extremadura
81'🟥Roberto Olabe · Extremadura
89'⚽Eugeni Valderrama · Albacete

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
19Shots6
3On target2
4Corners0
20Fouls18
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlbaceteExtremadura
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.52
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.41
box share (last 5)0.530.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days288.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCarlos Belmonte
43.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.331.95
elo1505.971410.28
elo momentum (last 5)-13.76-10.46
eye test v1-0.770.02
eye trend v1-0.010.55
first sub minute (last 10)64.9066.50
form points (last 5)5.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.20
keeper form v10.830.74
league points50.0027.00
league rank3.0019.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.8075.00
possession avg (last 5)53.2046.40
rest days6.836.00
scorer concentration0.290.45
season ppg1.720.93
skill v10.32-0.43
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.603.80
sot for avg (last 3)2.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.804.60
state index-0.19-0.55
sterile dominance v10.72-0.21
threat rate (last 10)0.200.21
threat rate (last 3)0.150.23
threat rate (last 5)0.180.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.60