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Tenerife 1–1 Numancia

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: David Perez Pallas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win50%1.92
Draw30%3.18
Numancia win19%5.06

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Carlos Ruiz · Tenerife
24'⚽Luis Milla · Tenerife
29'🟨Gus Ledes · Numancia
36'🟨Uroš Račić · Tenerife
53'🟨Luis Milla · Tenerife
76'🟨Unai Medina · Numancia
85'⚽Higinio Marín · Numancia
90'🟨Filip Malbašić · Tenerife
90'🟨Alberto Escassi · Numancia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots12
4On target8
3Corners5
19Fouls10
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTenerifeNumancia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.29
box share (last 5)0.680.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days190.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHeliodoro Rodríguez López
282.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.213.05
elo1430.391444.60
elo momentum (last 5)-17.324.85
eye test v1-0.63-0.79
eye trend v10.07-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)58.4058.60
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.97
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
keeper form v10.680.67
league points31.0034.00
league rank18.0014.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.0074.00
possession avg (last 5)58.2053.60
rest days7.757.08
scorer concentration0.210.30
season ppg1.111.21
skill v10.99-0.05
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.602.80
state index-0.43-0.16
sterile dominance v11.020.48
threat rate (last 10)0.220.22
threat rate (last 3)0.200.19
threat rate (last 5)0.190.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20