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Extremadura 3–0 Cordoba

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui Fernandez Orte, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Extremadura win46%2.12
Draw31%3.14
Cordoba win23%4.15

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Andrés Martín · Cordoba
14'⚽Borja Granero Ninerola · Extremadura
40'🟨Jose Antonio Pardo · Extremadura
41'🟨Miguel Loureiro · Cordoba
43'🟨Yann Bodiger · Cordoba
45'⚽Giovanni Zarfino · Extremadura
54'🟨Yann Bodiger · Cordoba
54'🟥Yann Bodiger · Cordoba
55'🟨José Ángel Carrillo · Cordoba
85'🟨Javier Lara · Cordoba
87'🟨Alejandro Alfaro · Cordoba
90'⚽Kike · Extremadura

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
15Shots7
9On target2
7Corners4
7Fouls22
1Yellow cards7
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricExtremaduraCordoba
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.37
box share (last 5)0.530.70
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days37.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Francisco de la Hera
129.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.782.01
elo1397.111369.44
elo momentum (last 5)-41.72-6.94
eye test v1-0.49-0.88
eye trend v10.05-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)66.1059.50
form points (last 5)2.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.07
keeper form v10.740.57
league points24.0022.00
league rank19.0021.00
matches since blank1.008.00
matches since clean sheet5.003.00
matches since win8.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0072.80
possession avg (last 5)46.2047.20
rest days6.837.92
scorer concentration0.500.23
season ppg0.860.79
skill v1-0.45-0.61
sot against avg (last 5)5.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.402.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.402.60
state index-1.30-0.83
sterile dominance v1-0.110.18
threat rate (last 10)0.190.17
threat rate (last 3)0.190.14
threat rate (last 5)0.220.18
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.60