⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Mallorca 1–0 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alvaro Moreno Aragon

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mallorca win41%2.36
Draw33%2.97
Oviedo win26%3.69

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'🟨Oswaldo Alanís · Oviedo
35'🟨Sergio Tejera · Oviedo
45'🟨Pervis Estupiñán · Mallorca
47'🟨Toché · Oviedo
67'🟨Omar Ramos · Oviedo
68'⚽Pervis Estupiñán · Mallorca
79'🟨Ibrahima Baldé · Oviedo
87'🟨Salva Sevilla · Mallorca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
15Shots0
4On target0
8Corners1
17Fouls27
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMallorcaOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.35—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.39—
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.32—
box share (last 5)0.58—
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days707.00616.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueIberostar Estadi
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.731.73
elo1463.031497.14
elo momentum (last 5)11.6123.69
eye test v1-0.22-0.52
eye trend v10.50-0.08
first sub minute (last 10)58.7061.80
form points (last 5)8.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.03
keeper form v10.740.78
league points42.0044.00
league rank10.007.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0070.80
possession avg (last 5)45.0047.80
rest days6.175.92
scorer concentration0.280.17
season ppg1.501.57
skill v1-0.53-0.78
sot against avg (last 5)4.202.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.20
state index0.120.22
sterile dominance v1-0.59-0.06
threat rate (last 10)0.230.19
threat rate (last 3)0.290.16
threat rate (last 5)0.270.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.602.00