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Zaragoza 1–2 Almeria

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Varon Aceiton

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win43%2.23
Draw31%3.08
Almeria win25%3.86

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

34'🟨César de la Hoz · Almeria
38'🟨Diogo Verdasca · Zaragoza
38'🟨Esteban Saveljich · Almeria
58'🟨Alberto Benito · Zaragoza
59'⚽Álvaro Giménez · Almeria
64'🟨Iván Martos · Almeria
77'⚽Álvaro Vázquez · Zaragoza
78'🟨Dorado · Zaragoza
83'🟨Marc Gual · Zaragoza
83'⚽Esteban Saveljich · Almeria
90'🟥Alberto Soro · Zaragoza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
18Shots12
6On target5
11Corners4
14Fouls24
3Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaAlmeria
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.25
box share (last 5)0.520.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days92.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLa Romareda
732.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.603.18
elo1461.821474.06
elo momentum (last 5)18.6018.26
eye test v10.21-0.56
eye trend v1-0.300.21
first sub minute (last 10)55.4063.20
form points (last 5)8.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.99
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.750.72
league points31.0040.00
league rank15.0010.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.4070.80
possession avg (last 5)53.6051.40
rest days8.007.19
scorer concentration0.280.29
season ppg1.151.48
skill v10.72-0.53
sot against avg (last 5)5.602.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.904.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.20
state index0.020.21
sterile dominance v10.12-0.31
threat rate (last 10)0.280.27
threat rate (last 3)0.260.32
threat rate (last 5)0.280.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.80