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Mallorca 1–1 Elche CF

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Valentin Pizarro Gomez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mallorca win48%2.02
Draw31%3.14
Elche CF win21%4.56

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Iván Sánchez · Elche CF
31'🟨Yacine Qasmi · Elche CF
38'🟨Manuel Sánchez · Elche CF
51'🟨Dani Calvo · Elche CF
52'🟨Antonio Raíllo · Mallorca
53'🟨Gonzalo Verdú · Elche CF
56'⚽Ante Budimir · Mallorca
57'🟨Javi Flores · Elche CF
61'🟨— · Elche CF
62'🟨Marc Pedraza · Mallorca
66'🟨Iván Sánchez · Elche CF
66'🟨Yacine Qasmi · Elche CF
66'🟥Yacine Qasmi · Elche CF
68'🟨Salva Sevilla · Mallorca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots11
4On target4
4Corners4
13Fouls21
3Yellow cards8
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMallorcaElche CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.33
box share (last 5)0.580.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days701.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueIberostar Estadi
395.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.751.97
elo1466.451402.72
elo momentum (last 5)18.7816.59
eye test v1-0.41-0.33
eye trend v10.150.06
first sub minute (last 10)60.1054.80
form points (last 5)8.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.71
keeper form v10.750.68
league points41.0032.00
league rank9.0014.00
matches since blank2.0010.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0073.80
possession avg (last 5)44.6049.20
rest days8.636.75
scorer concentration0.290.40
season ppg1.521.19
skill v1-0.66-0.37
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.303.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.80
state index0.20-0.16
sterile dominance v1-0.34-0.14
threat rate (last 10)0.230.22
threat rate (last 3)0.260.26
threat rate (last 5)0.230.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.40