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Cordoba 1–1 Málaga CF

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Inaki Vicandi Garrido, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF win43%2.26
Draw32%3.04
Cordoba win25%3.83

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'🟨Erik Morán · Málaga CF
34'🟨Luis Muñoz · Cordoba
51'🟨Gustavo Blanco · Málaga CF
61'⚽Miguel De las Cuevas · Cordoba
66'🟨Ibrahim Blati Toure · Cordoba
67'🟨Miguel De las Cuevas · Cordoba
87'🟨Neftali Manzambi · Cordoba
90'🟨José Fernández · Cordoba
90'🟨Federico Ricca · Málaga CF
90'⚽Alfred N'Diaye · Málaga CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
3Shots13
2On target5
1Corners6
15Fouls15
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCordobaMálaga CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.26
box share (last 5)0.710.49
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days121.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Arcángel
274.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.083.08
elo1367.981479.06
elo momentum (last 5)-14.455.20
eye test v1-1.02-0.79
eye trend v10.21-0.13
first sub minute (last 10)57.3062.30
form points (last 5)3.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.070.82
keeper form v10.570.82
league points21.0049.00
league rank20.004.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.0072.80
possession avg (last 5)47.2040.80
rest days6.086.00
scorer concentration0.230.21
season ppg0.781.81
skill v1-0.90-1.04
sot against avg (last 5)3.402.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.803.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.602.80
state index-0.860.04
sterile dominance v1-0.10-0.83
threat rate (last 10)0.180.23
threat rate (last 3)0.190.25
threat rate (last 5)0.200.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.002.20