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Almeria 3–1 Cordoba

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luis Pulido Santana, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win56%1.73
Draw27%3.62
Cordoba win18%5.48

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽José Ángel Carrillo · Cordoba
28'⚽José Corpas · Almeria
31'🟨Alex Quintanilla · Cordoba
51'⚽Juan Carlos · Almeria
59'⚽Álvaro Giménez · Almeria
75'🟨Àlex Carbonell · Cordoba
90'🟨Alex Vallejo · Cordoba

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
12Shots10
5On target2
4Corners3
18Fouls16
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlmeriaCordoba
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.210.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.540.67
cards avg (last 5)3.203.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio del Mediterráneo
coach days725.00115.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.030.16
corner diff avg (last 5)2.80-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.806.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.603.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.272.08
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.18
dominance (last 5)0.580.44
elo1494.771408.02
elo momentum (last 5)9.98-16.31
eye test v1-0.73-0.76
eye trend v1-0.020.23
first sub minute (last 10)62.7059.20
form points (last 5)8.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
keeper form v10.630.62
league points40.0022.00
league rank10.0021.00
matches since blank3.006.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.8069.40
possession avg (last 5)53.4044.60
rest days7.009.00
scorer concentration0.290.24
season ppg1.480.81
shot diff avg (last 5)4.00-2.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.809.00
skill v1-0.50-1.14
sot against avg (last 5)2.603.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.902.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.20
squad age25.7425.84
state index0.27-0.68
sterile dominance v1-0.27-0.33
threat rate (last 10)0.260.18
threat rate (last 3)0.300.21
threat rate (last 5)0.260.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80