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Mallorca 3–0 Lugo

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Victor Areces Franco, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mallorca win53%1.81
Draw27%3.62
Lugo win20%4.84

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'🟨José Carlos Lazo · Lugo
8'⚽Dani Rodríguez · Mallorca
11'🟨Hernan Menosse · Lugo
29'🟨Marc Pedraza · Mallorca
66'🟨Gerard Valentín · Lugo
69'⚽Dani Rodríguez · Mallorca
70'🟨Carlos Pita · Lugo
90'🟨Miguel Vieira · Lugo
90'⚽ (pen)Lago Júnior · Mallorca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
18Shots10
6On target2
8Corners3
15Fouls16
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMallorcaLugo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.28
box share (last 5)0.510.59
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days687.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueIberostar Estadi
139.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.464.05
elo1454.601388.34
elo momentum (last 5)5.85-21.56
eye test v1-0.75-0.55
eye trend v1-0.290.32
first sub minute (last 10)61.7061.30
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.37
keeper form v10.740.57
league points37.0026.00
league rank9.0018.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.005.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0075.80
possession avg (last 5)45.2048.80
rest days6.837.65
scorer concentration0.330.26
season ppg1.481.04
skill v1-0.62-0.19
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.603.40
state index-0.02-0.91
sterile dominance v1-0.250.05
threat rate (last 10)0.240.21
threat rate (last 3)0.190.23
threat rate (last 5)0.220.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.40