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Cadiz 2–0 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Feb 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Inaki Vicandi Garrido, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win43%2.23
Draw33%2.91
Tenerife win23%4.18

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'🟨Fernando Coniglio · Tenerife
16'🟨Suso · Tenerife
24'🟨Luis Milla · Tenerife
37'🟨Dejan Lekic · Cadiz
48'⚽Edu Ramos · Cadiz
52'🟨Edu Ramos · Cadiz
72'⚽Jairo Izquierdo · Cadiz
77'🟨José Naranjo · Tenerife
81'🟨José Naranjo · Tenerife
81'🟥José Naranjo · Tenerife

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots4
4On target2
9Corners3
13Fouls15
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCadizTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.17
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.19
box share (last 5)0.550.67
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1051.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Ramon de Carranza
168.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.083.49
elo1521.791430.37
elo momentum (last 5)-5.45-17.39
eye test v1-0.79-1.05
eye trend v10.13-0.38
first sub minute (last 10)56.9058.80
form points (last 5)6.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.940.82
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v10.830.73
league points38.0027.00
league rank7.0017.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.2078.80
possession avg (last 5)44.8056.80
rest days6.357.02
scorer concentration0.210.24
season ppg1.521.08
skill v1-1.250.66
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.103.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.671.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.202.00
state index0.10-0.74
sterile dominance v1-0.600.92
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.220.19
threat rate (last 5)0.230.18
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.40