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Almeria 1–0 Numancia

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Almeria win46%2.12
Draw33%2.90
Numancia win21%4.64

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'⚽ (pen)Juan Carlos · Almeria
23'🟨Juan Fernández · Almeria
34'🟨José Romera · Almeria
70'🟥Unai Medina · Numancia
74'🟨Alain Oyarzun · Numancia
79'🟨Luis Rioja · Almeria
90'🟨Yan Eteki · Almeria
90'🟨Juan Carlos · Numancia
90'🟨Pichu Atienza · Numancia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
17Shots6
6On target3
7Corners3
19Fouls14
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlmeriaNumancia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.170.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.32
box share (last 5)0.550.65
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days711.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio del Mediterráneo
254.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.262.83
elo1447.991452.90
elo momentum (last 5)8.389.41
eye test v1-0.59-0.09
eye trend v1-0.560.22
first sub minute (last 10)62.5060.30
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.602.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.06
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.57—
league points31.0030.00
league rank12.0013.00
matches since blank1.009.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.4075.40
possession avg (last 5)55.2052.20
rest days8.888.08
scorer concentration0.290.25
season ppg1.291.25
skill v1-0.22-0.00
sot against avg (last 5)2.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.20
sot for avg (last 3)1.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.20
state index-0.29-0.09
sterile dominance v10.110.03
threat rate (last 10)0.230.25
threat rate (last 3)0.180.26
threat rate (last 5)0.230.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.80