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Granada 0–1 RC Deportivo La Coruña

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Valentin Pizarro Gomez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Granada win36%2.71
Draw35%2.74
RC Deportivo La Coruña win29%3.36

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨David Simón · RC Deportivo La Coruña
49'⚽Quique · RC Deportivo La Coruña
67'🟨Ángel Montoro · Granada
80'🟨Rodri · Granada
80'🟨Antonio Puertas · Granada
83'🟥Aarón Escandell · Granada
84'🟨Adrian Ramos · Granada
85'🟨Didier Moreno · RC Deportivo La Coruña
90'🟨Quini · Granada
90'🟨Domingos Duarte · RC Deportivo La Coruña
90'🟨Diego Caballo · RC Deportivo La Coruña
90'🟥Matías Nahuel · RC Deportivo La Coruña

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots8
3On target2
3Corners3
13Fouls14
4Yellow cards4
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGranadaRC Deportivo La Coruña
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.35
box share (last 5)0.570.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days254.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNuevo Los Cármenes
254.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.902.15
elo1510.651517.05
elo momentum (last 5)-7.056.70
eye test v1-0.270.19
eye trend v10.37-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)54.7064.40
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.631.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.820.73
league points44.0043.00
league rank3.005.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0083.80
possession avg (last 5)51.2056.80
rest days7.007.90
scorer concentration0.250.22
season ppg1.831.79
skill v1-0.001.18
sot against avg (last 5)3.802.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.404.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.40
state index-0.14-0.00
sterile dominance v10.150.81
threat rate (last 10)0.200.23
threat rate (last 3)0.220.26
threat rate (last 5)0.230.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00