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Lugo 1–2 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luis Pulido Santana, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lugo win35%2.75
Zaragoza win32%3.00
Draw32%3.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'🟨Alberto Guitián · Zaragoza
26'⚽ (pen)Carlos Pita · Lugo
41'🟨Fernando Seoane · Lugo
45'🟨José Carlos Ramírez · Lugo
63'⚽Miguel Linares · Zaragoza
65'🟨Edu Campabadal · Lugo
72'⚽Alberto Guitián · Zaragoza
82'🟨Álvaro Vázquez · Zaragoza
85'🟨Gerard Valentín · Lugo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
15Shots11
8On target3
5Corners5
19Fouls13
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLugoZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.38
box share (last 5)0.430.46
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days131.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAnxo Carro
70.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.163.36
elo1398.351458.17
elo momentum (last 5)-7.1411.20
eye test v1-1.270.87
eye trend v1-0.150.41
first sub minute (last 10)60.3056.10
form points (last 5)5.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.400.94
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
keeper form v10.580.64
league points26.0027.00
league rank18.0015.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2082.20
possession avg (last 5)47.4057.00
rest days7.194.98
scorer concentration0.260.30
season ppg1.081.13
skill v1-0.341.03
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.904.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.006.00
state index-0.44-0.14
sterile dominance v10.290.34
threat rate (last 10)0.190.25
threat rate (last 3)0.180.30
threat rate (last 5)0.180.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.00