← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luis Pulido Santana, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lugo win | 35% | 2.75 |
| Zaragoza win | 32% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Alberto Guitián · Zaragoza |
| 26' | ⚽ (pen) | Carlos Pita · Lugo |
| 41' | 🟨 | Fernando Seoane · Lugo |
| 45' | 🟨 | José Carlos Ramírez · Lugo |
| 63' | ⚽ | Miguel Linares · Zaragoza |
| 65' | 🟨 | Edu Campabadal · Lugo |
| 72' | ⚽ | Alberto Guitián · Zaragoza |
| 82' | 🟨 | Álvaro Vázquez · Zaragoza |
| 85' | 🟨 | Gerard Valentín · Lugo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lugo | Zaragoza |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Anxo Carro |
| coach days | 131.00 | 70.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.06 | 3.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1421.55 | 1491.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.28 | 25.46 |
| eye test v1 | -1.27 | 0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| league points | 27.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.34 | 1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 28.22 | 26.38 |
| state index | -0.50 | 0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |