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Tenerife 0–2 Cordoba

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver de la Fuente Ramos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win63%1.52
Draw22%4.38
Cordoba win15%6.58

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'🟨Miguel Loureiro · Cordoba
39'⚽Chus Herrero · Cordoba
49'🟨Luis Pérez · Tenerife
62'🟨Filip Malbašić · Tenerife
69'🟨Luis Muñoz · Cordoba
70'🟨Marcos Lavín · Cordoba
72'🟨Borja Lasso · Tenerife
76'🟨Alberto Jiménez · Tenerife
76'⚽Miguel De las Cuevas · Cordoba
78'🟨Yann Bodiger · Cordoba
84'🟨Jorge Sáenz · Tenerife
90'🟨Suso · Tenerife

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots10
2On target5
8Corners4
16Fouls17
6Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTenerifeCordoba
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.35
box share (last 5)0.710.59
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days161.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHeliodoro Rodríguez López
100.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.432.02
elo1451.361364.42
elo momentum (last 5)10.53-35.75
eye test v1-0.54-0.99
eye trend v1-0.340.08
first sub minute (last 10)59.8061.70
form points (last 5)8.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.14
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.750.62
league points27.0018.00
league rank17.0022.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.007.00
matches since win2.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6068.80
possession avg (last 5)54.8045.60
rest days6.987.08
scorer concentration0.240.27
season ppg1.130.75
skill v10.40-1.13
sot against avg (last 5)2.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.202.80
state index-0.09-1.26
sterile dominance v10.47-0.09
threat rate (last 10)0.250.18
threat rate (last 3)0.190.20
threat rate (last 5)0.220.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.40