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Las Palmas 1–1 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2018 · Mon, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Iglesias Villanueva, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas win45%2.17
Draw30%3.19
Zaragoza win25%3.88

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Rubén Castro · Las Palmas
28'🟨Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Las Palmas
33'🟨Íñigo Eguaras · Zaragoza
45'⚽Álvaro Vázquez · Zaragoza
46'🟨Carlos Nieto · Zaragoza
49'🟨Rafa Mir · Las Palmas
64'🟨Eric Curbelo · Las Palmas
75'🟨Gabriel Peñalba · Las Palmas
76'🟨Gabriel Peñalba · Las Palmas
76'🟥Gabriel Peñalba · Las Palmas
81'🟨David Timor · Las Palmas
88'🟨Alberto Guitián · Zaragoza
89'🟨Álvaro Lemos · Las Palmas
90'🟨Miguel Linares · Zaragoza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
10Shots14
4On target3
4Corners3
14Fouls17
7Yellow cards4
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLas PalmasZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.37
box share (last 5)0.590.50
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days79.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGran Canaria
65.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.033.22
elo1418.811457.55
elo momentum (last 5)18.9318.96
eye test v1-0.131.17
eye trend v10.140.44
first sub minute (last 10)56.8054.80
form points (last 5)8.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.230.99
keeper form v10.620.62
league points32.0026.00
league rank11.0017.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.4082.40
possession avg (last 5)48.0058.40
rest days8.0410.00
scorer concentration0.310.27
season ppg1.391.13
skill v1-0.701.15
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.006.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.206.40
state index-0.130.07
sterile dominance v1-0.570.12
threat rate (last 10)0.220.26
threat rate (last 3)0.240.31
threat rate (last 5)0.270.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40