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Oviedo 2–1 Cadiz

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gorka Sagues Oscoz, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win40%2.40
Draw35%2.80
Cadiz win25%3.88

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'🟨José Mari · Cadiz
13'⚽Carlos Hernández · Oviedo
17'🟨Ivan Kecojević · Cadiz
42'⚽Darwin Machís · Cadiz
44'🟨Alberto · Cadiz
44'⚽Diegui · Oviedo
46'🟨Yoel Bárcenas · Oviedo
58'🟨Christian Fernández · Oviedo
58'🟨David Querol · Cadiz
65'🟨Salvi · Cadiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
12Shots12
8On target3
4Corners3
14Fouls14
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoCadiz
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.520.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.470.22
box share (last 5)0.600.51
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days582.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJorge Garbajosa
1038.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.901.03
elo1473.441521.18
elo momentum (last 5)20.63-0.56
eye test v1-0.51-1.15
eye trend v10.24-0.25
first sub minute (last 10)64.6059.20
form points (last 5)10.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.43
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
keeper form v10.740.85
league points33.0035.00
league rank9.008.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.4068.60
possession avg (last 5)46.2040.40
rest days8.797.81
scorer concentration0.200.24
season ppg1.431.52
skill v1-0.71-1.50
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.303.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.402.20
state index0.18-0.06
sterile dominance v10.12-1.00
threat rate (last 10)0.230.27
threat rate (last 3)0.160.22
threat rate (last 5)0.170.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40