← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Feb 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Abraham Dominguez Cervantes, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Numancia win | 50% | 1.93 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.15 |
| Lugo win | 19% | 5.07 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | David Rodriguez · Numancia |
| 19' | 🟨 | Alain Oyarzun · Numancia |
| 29' | 🟨 | Sergio Gil · Lugo |
| 39' | 🟨 | Miguel Vieira · Lugo |
| 49' | 🟨 | Josete · Lugo |
| 59' | ⚽ | Nacho Sánchez · Numancia |
| 72' | 🟨 | Gerard Valentín · Lugo |
| 90' | 🟥 | Alberto Escassi · Numancia |
| 90' | ⚽ | Guillermo · Numancia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Numancia | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.60 |
| venue | Los Pajaritos |
| coach days | 246.00 | 124.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 4.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1459.55 | 1434.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.64 | 7.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | — |
| league points | 28.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | -0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.90 | 27.56 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |