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Cadiz 1–1 Mallorca

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Jan 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Damaso Arcediano Monescillo, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cadiz win47%2.05
Draw33%2.90
Mallorca win19%4.96

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Róber · Cadiz
25'🟨Ivan Kecojević · Cadiz
37'⚽Stoichkov · Mallorca
38'🟥— · Cadiz
52'🟨Joan Sastre · Mallorca
73'🟨Jon Ander Garrido · Cadiz
75'🟨Iddrisu Baba · Mallorca
77'🟨Manu Vallejo · Cadiz
80'🟨Salva Sevilla · Mallorca
84'⚽Jon Ander Garrido · Cadiz
87'🟥Marcos Mauro · Cadiz
88'🟨Alberto · Cadiz
88'🟨Manolo Reina · Mallorca

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
7Shots5
1On target3
4Corners2
12Fouls16
5Yellow cards4
2Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCadizMallorca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.31
box share (last 5)0.560.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1030.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Ramon de Carranza
665.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.032.71
elo1524.941447.67
elo momentum (last 5)-7.06-13.42
eye test v1-1.04-0.44
eye trend v1-0.43-0.77
first sub minute (last 10)62.0058.30
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.431.03
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
keeper form v10.870.74
league points34.0033.00
league rank7.009.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.4077.20
possession avg (last 5)41.0049.20
rest days7.196.35
scorer concentration0.250.36
season ppg1.551.50
skill v1-1.58-0.01
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.605.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.403.20
state index0.06-0.53
sterile dominance v1-1.110.01
threat rate (last 10)0.290.27
threat rate (last 3)0.230.20
threat rate (last 5)0.270.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.80