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Granada 2–1 Elche CF

← Segunda División 2018 · Mon, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Cesar Soto Grado, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Granada win55%1.76
Draw28%3.44
Elche CF win17%5.61

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽Ángel Montoro · Granada
25'🟨Fede San Emeterio · Granada
29'🟨Alexander González · Elche CF
36'🟨Gonzalo Verdú · Elche CF
42'🟨Ángel Montoro · Granada
44'⚽Ángel Montoro · Granada
71'⚽ (pen)Xavi Torres · Elche CF
90'🟨Sory Kaba · Elche CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
13Shots10
6On target3
2Corners1
21Fouls14
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGranadaElche CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.38
box share (last 5)0.650.65
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days234.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueNuevo Los Cármenes
354.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.682.23
elo1517.991391.22
elo momentum (last 5)13.9322.91
eye test v1-0.53-0.40
eye trend v10.440.00
first sub minute (last 10)57.4055.40
form points (last 5)9.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.99
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
keeper form v10.840.64
league points40.0024.00
league rank2.0015.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0073.40
possession avg (last 5)54.6051.80
rest days10.008.04
scorer concentration0.270.50
season ppg1.901.14
skill v10.12-0.23
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.60
state index0.11-0.21
sterile dominance v10.510.30
threat rate (last 10)0.200.22
threat rate (last 3)0.230.15
threat rate (last 5)0.200.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80