← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Jan 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alvaro Moreno Aragon
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Málaga CF win | 61% | 1.58 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.74 |
| Lugo win | 13% | 7.24 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand