← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Jan 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alvaro Moreno Aragon
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Málaga CF win | 61% | 1.58 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.74 |
| Lugo win | 13% | 7.24 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Josete · Lugo |
| 34' | 🟨 | Keidi Bare · Málaga CF |
| 37' | 🟨 | David Lombán · Málaga CF |
| 50' | ⚽ | Adrián González · Málaga CF |
| 63' | 🟨 | Ramon Azeez · Lugo |
| 70' | 🟥 | Josete · Lugo |
| 79' | ⚽ | Jack Harper · Málaga CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Málaga CF | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| venue | La Rosaleda |
| coach days | 232.00 | 110.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -7.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1526.95 | 1431.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.19 | 8.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | -0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| league points | 40.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | -0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.70 | 26.81 |
| state index | 0.17 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |