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Numancia 3–2 Cordoba

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Jan 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruben Avalos Barrera

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Numancia win56%1.74
Draw27%3.61
Cordoba win18%5.48

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽Pape Maly Diamanka · Numancia
20'⚽Alain Oyarzun · Numancia
45'⚽Pape Maly Diamanka · Numancia
46'⚽Miguel De las Cuevas · Cordoba
61'⚽Federico Piovaccari · Cordoba
67'🟨Pape Maly Diamanka · Numancia
70'🟨Miguel Loureiro · Cordoba
80'🟨Alex Quintanilla · Cordoba
90'🟨Saša Jovanović · Cordoba

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
13Shots10
4On target5
6Corners3
12Fouls18
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNumanciaCordoba
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.34
box share (last 5)0.560.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days232.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLos Pajaritos
79.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.471.69
elo1432.441389.55
elo momentum (last 5)-14.299.60
eye test v1-0.07-0.93
eye trend v1-0.25-0.13
first sub minute (last 10)61.4056.50
form points (last 5)3.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.49
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
keeper form v10.690.70
league points23.0018.00
league rank15.0021.00
matches since blank6.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.004.00
matches since win5.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.4073.80
possession avg (last 5)55.8052.80
rest days7.006.25
scorer concentration0.180.26
season ppg1.100.86
skill v10.56-0.12
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.002.60
state index-0.65-0.47
sterile dominance v10.280.72
threat rate (last 10)0.240.20
threat rate (last 3)0.250.15
threat rate (last 5)0.260.15
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.40