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Oviedo 1–0 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Jan 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win46%2.09
Draw32%3.05
Tenerife win22%4.42

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Yoel Bárcenas · Oviedo
47'🟨José Naranjo · Tenerife
60'🟨Sergio Tejera · Oviedo
70'🟨Christian Fernández · Oviedo
76'🟨Carlos Ruiz · Tenerife
77'🟨Alberto Jiménez · Tenerife
86'🟨Toché · Oviedo
86'🟨Filip Malbašić · Tenerife
90'🟨Mossa · Oviedo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots6
4On target1
4Corners1
16Fouls20
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.220.34
box share (last 5)0.580.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days560.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJorge Garbajosa
133.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.962.45
elo1463.171447.77
elo momentum (last 5)-9.39-0.57
eye test v1-1.090.45
eye trend v10.110.13
first sub minute (last 10)64.5057.70
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.201.05
keeper form v10.590.69
league points27.0022.00
league rank12.0016.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.4075.60
possession avg (last 5)46.2052.80
rest days5.107.98
scorer concentration0.140.27
season ppg1.351.10
skill v1-1.020.06
sot against avg (last 5)2.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.305.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.006.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.205.20
state index-0.15-0.30
sterile dominance v1-0.54-0.35
threat rate (last 10)0.260.32
threat rate (last 3)0.230.31
threat rate (last 5)0.240.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.40