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Reus 1–1 Numancia

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Jan 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Ocon Arraiz, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Numancia win43%2.28
Draw33%2.98
Reus win25%3.88

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Ricardo Vaz · Reus
22'⚽ (og)Alejandro Catena · Numancia
32'🟨Alberto Escassi · Numancia
36'🟨Gus Ledes · Reus
50'🟨Yaw Yeboah · Numancia
58'🟨Pelayo Suarez · Numancia
77'🟨Jordi Sánchez · Numancia
90'🟨— · Reus
90'🟨David Querol · Reus
90'⚽David Querol · Reus

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
5Shots11
2On target2
3Corners4
15Fouls16
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricReusNumancia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.28
box share (last 5)0.670.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days203.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Reus
225.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.493.69
elo1386.891432.01
elo momentum (last 5)18.36-3.86
eye test v1-0.960.15
eye trend v10.560.01
first sub minute (last 10)63.0060.60
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.03
keeper form v11.000.72
league points20.0022.00
league rank20.0014.00
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.8078.80
possession avg (last 5)43.4058.60
rest days5.925.00
scorer concentration0.310.18
season ppg1.001.10
skill v1-1.380.79
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)1.804.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.404.40
state index-0.35-0.53
sterile dominance v1-0.750.40
threat rate (last 10)0.180.23
threat rate (last 3)0.210.28
threat rate (last 5)0.240.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.400.60