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Las Palmas 4–1 CA Osasuna

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Jan 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Oliver de la Fuente Ramos, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas win38%2.58
Draw32%3.03
CA Osasuna win30%3.19

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Juan Cala · Las Palmas
11'⚽Fidel · Las Palmas
30'🟨Iñigo Pérez · CA Osasuna
31'⚽Fidel · Las Palmas
33'⚽Rafa Mir · Las Palmas
44'🟨Fran Mérida · CA Osasuna
53'⚽Fran Mérida · CA Osasuna
58'🟨Eric Curbelo · Las Palmas
59'🟨Gabriel Peñalba · Las Palmas
82'⚽Álvaro Lemos · Las Palmas
84'🟨Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · Las Palmas
85'🟨Rubén García · CA Osasuna
90'🟨Roberto Torres · CA Osasuna

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
10Shots13
5On target2
2Corners1
20Fouls14
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLas PalmasCA Osasuna
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.570.56
cards avg (last 5)3.603.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGran Canaria
coach days56.00225.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.600.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.204.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.604.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.662.36
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.08
dominance (last 5)0.530.57
elo1439.231547.01
elo momentum (last 5)-31.9531.96
eye test v1-0.360.29
eye trend v10.17-0.04
first sub minute (last 10)54.9063.10
form points (last 5)3.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.84
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.580.69
league points25.0038.00
league rank14.004.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win10.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2072.20
possession avg (last 5)52.2053.80
rest days5.006.00
scorer concentration0.360.35
season ppg1.191.81
shot diff avg (last 5)1.404.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.6014.80
skill v1-0.02-0.22
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.804.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.605.20
state index-0.890.60
sterile dominance v1-0.00-0.19
threat rate (last 10)0.230.26
threat rate (last 3)0.300.23
threat rate (last 5)0.250.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.60