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Málaga CF 0–3 Reus

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Jan 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Antonio Lopez Toca

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF win78%1.22
Draw16%6.07
Reus win6%16.71

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Borja Herrera · Reus
30'🟨Alfred N'Diaye · Málaga CF
37'🟨Miguel Linares · Reus
56'🟨Jack Harper · Málaga CF
57'🟨Renato Santos · Málaga CF
62'🟨Diego González · Málaga CF
63'⚽ (pen)Gus Ledes · Reus
83'⚽David Querol · Reus

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
22Shots5
10On target3
11Corners3
18Fouls10
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMálaga CFReus
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.23
box share (last 5)0.510.66
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days219.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLa Rosaleda
197.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.791.71
elo1474.681361.31
elo momentum (last 5)3.86-17.90
eye test v1-0.50-1.14
eye trend v10.030.64
first sub minute (last 10)56.3064.40
form points (last 5)7.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.940.71
keeper form v10.690.62
league points36.0017.00
league rank4.0021.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4066.40
possession avg (last 5)51.6042.80
rest days15.1714.33
scorer concentration0.270.36
season ppg1.890.89
skill v1-0.04-1.56
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.002.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.402.20
state index0.10-0.89
sterile dominance v10.47-0.96
threat rate (last 10)0.200.20
threat rate (last 3)0.200.34
threat rate (last 5)0.180.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.80