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CA Osasuna 2–1 Cadiz

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Jan 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alvaro Moreno Aragon

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CA Osasuna win43%2.24
Draw32%3.02
Cadiz win25%3.93

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽Álex Fernández · Cadiz
25'🟨Jon Ander Garrido · Cadiz
26'⚽Rubén García · CA Osasuna
32'🟨Kike Barja · CA Osasuna
35'⚽Roberto Torres · CA Osasuna
78'🟨Róber · Cadiz
81'🟨Álex Fernández · Cadiz

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
12Shots9
4On target2
3Corners3
15Fouls19
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCA OsasunaCadiz
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.560.60
cards avg (last 5)3.402.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio El Sadar
coach days219.001010.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.05
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.16
corner diff avg (last 5)0.002.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.602.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.605.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.442.11
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.05
dominance (last 5)0.560.52
elo1537.991563.77
elo momentum (last 5)12.7336.42
eye test v10.14-0.45
eye trend v10.16-0.40
first sub minute (last 10)62.6060.80
form points (last 5)10.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.851.66
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.670.86
league points35.0033.00
league rank6.007.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.8068.40
possession avg (last 5)54.6037.20
rest days14.0015.00
scorer concentration0.380.26
season ppg1.751.65
shot diff avg (last 5)3.600.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.4011.00
skill v1-0.42-1.73
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.40
squad age27.7628.54
state index0.530.79
sterile dominance v1-0.14-1.64
threat rate (last 10)0.250.30
threat rate (last 3)0.240.32
threat rate (last 5)0.250.32
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.80