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RC Deportivo La Coruña 0–0 Lugo

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Jan 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruben Avalos Barrera

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Deportivo La Coruña win66%1.47
Draw23%4.19
Lugo win11%8.45

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

35'🟨Cristian Herrera · Lugo
37'🟨José Carlos Ramírez · Lugo
40'🟨Saúl García · RC Deportivo La Coruña
52'🟨Fernando Seoane · Lugo
63'🟨Álex Bergantiños · RC Deportivo La Coruña
68'🟨Carlos Pita · Lugo
69'🟨José Carlos Ramírez · Lugo
69'🟥José Carlos Ramírez · Lugo
90'🟨Domingos Duarte · RC Deportivo La Coruña
90'🟨Vasyl Kravets · Lugo
90'🟨Juan Carlos · Lugo
90'🟨Jean Marie Dongou · Lugo
90'🟨Jean Marie Dongou · Lugo
90'🟥Jean Marie Dongou · Lugo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots4
4On target1
7Corners2
13Fouls24
3Yellow cards9
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRC Deportivo La CoruñaLugo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.49
box share (last 5)0.720.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days219.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Riazor
97.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.363.77
elo1510.351405.48
elo momentum (last 5)3.2919.68
eye test v10.28-0.39
eye trend v10.310.37
first sub minute (last 10)61.2053.90
form points (last 5)8.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.261.29
keeper form v10.740.75
league points35.0021.00
league rank4.0017.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.8069.40
possession avg (last 5)51.8043.00
rest days14.8615.19
scorer concentration0.250.21
season ppg1.841.11
skill v10.12-1.24
sot against avg (last 5)3.405.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.80
state index0.23-0.31
sterile dominance v10.20-0.36
threat rate (last 10)0.220.20
threat rate (last 3)0.240.22
threat rate (last 5)0.230.19
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.60