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Tenerife 2–1 Elche CF

← Segunda División 2018 · Fri, Jan 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Inaki Vicandi Garrido, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win51%1.88
Draw29%3.38
Elche CF win20%4.80

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Filip Malbašić · Tenerife
36'🟨Gonzalo Villar · Elche CF
39'🟨Dani Calvo · Elche CF
43'🟨Alberto Jiménez · Tenerife
44'⚽ (pen)Xavi Torres · Elche CF
48'🟨Jorge Sáenz · Tenerife
60'⚽Jorge Sáenz · Tenerife
65'🟨Suso · Tenerife
66'🟨Filip Malbašić · Tenerife
73'🟨Iker Undabarrena · Tenerife
90'🟨Neyder Lozano · Elche CF
90'🟨— · Elche CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
18Shots5
8On target2
6Corners3
22Fouls17
5Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTenerifeElche CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.36
box share (last 5)0.510.61
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days125.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHeliodoro Rodríguez López
337.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.972.21
elo1440.831390.65
elo momentum (last 5)1.6415.92
eye test v10.11-0.04
eye trend v10.050.17
first sub minute (last 10)56.3063.50
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.10
keeper form v10.690.74
league points19.0021.00
league rank18.0014.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win4.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2073.60
possession avg (last 5)51.0050.60
rest days14.0813.04
scorer concentration0.310.53
season ppg1.001.11
skill v10.00-0.29
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.20
state index-0.30-0.34
sterile dominance v1-0.26-0.23
threat rate (last 10)0.290.24
threat rate (last 3)0.300.23
threat rate (last 5)0.280.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80