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Reus 0–1 CA Osasuna

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luis Pulido Santana, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CA Osasuna win48%2.01
Draw31%3.09
Reus win21%4.69

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'⚽Juan Villar · CA Osasuna
31'🟨Oier · CA Osasuna
36'🟨Gus Ledes · Reus
64'🟨David García · CA Osasuna
69'🟨Carlos Clerc · CA Osasuna
81'🟨Rubén Martínez · CA Osasuna
84'🟨Kike Barja · CA Osasuna
85'🟨Carlos Clerc · CA Osasuna
85'🟥Carlos Clerc · CA Osasuna
90'🟨Jesus Olmo · Reus
90'🟨Miguel Linares · Reus

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
14Shots14
3On target5
6Corners5
14Fouls22
3Yellow cards6
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricReusCA Osasuna
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.39
box share (last 5)0.680.59
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days183.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Reus
205.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.762.50
elo1369.391497.13
elo momentum (last 5)-28.9716.58
eye test v1-1.310.52
eye trend v10.440.42
first sub minute (last 10)66.2061.00
form points (last 5)4.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.700.95
keeper form v10.630.64
league points17.0029.00
league rank21.008.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.6071.40
possession avg (last 5)44.4054.60
rest days7.756.83
scorer concentration0.360.35
season ppg0.941.61
skill v1-1.12-0.25
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)1.904.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)1.805.80
state index-0.980.06
sterile dominance v1-0.45-0.23
threat rate (last 10)0.190.24
threat rate (last 3)0.270.27
threat rate (last 5)0.220.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.00