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Cordoba 4–1 Las Palmas

← Segunda División 2018 · Sat, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Iglesias Villanueva, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cordoba win37%2.60
Las Palmas win32%3.07
Draw31%3.12

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'⚽Jaime Romero · Cordoba
32'🟨Ibrahim Blati Toure · Cordoba
49'🟨Juan Cala · Las Palmas
57'🟨Fidel · Las Palmas
57'⚽Rubén Castro · Las Palmas
62'🟨Miguel Loureiro · Cordoba
66'⚽Federico Piovaccari · Cordoba
73'⚽Andrés Martín · Cordoba
85'⚽Federico Piovaccari · Cordoba

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
8Shots20
4On target6
1Corners6
11Fouls18
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCordobaLas Palmas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.41
box share (last 5)0.560.54
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days51.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Nuevo Arcángel
35.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.012.95
elo1384.931399.88
elo momentum (last 5)-19.47-24.35
eye test v1-0.17-0.05
eye trend v1-0.37-0.20
first sub minute (last 10)57.0054.10
form points (last 5)3.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.151.03
keeper form v10.580.67
league points14.0024.00
league rank21.0012.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win6.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4078.80
possession avg (last 5)58.4057.60
rest days7.106.10
scorer concentration0.220.33
season ppg0.781.33
skill v10.630.72
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.00
state index-0.85-1.24
sterile dominance v10.810.94
threat rate (last 10)0.250.21
threat rate (last 3)0.180.22
threat rate (last 5)0.200.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.40