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RC Deportivo La Coruña 3–1 Zaragoza

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luis Pulido Santana, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Deportivo La Coruña win64%1.51
Draw23%4.17
Zaragoza win13%7.36

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Borja Valle · RC Deportivo La Coruña
12'🟨Vicente Gómez · RC Deportivo La Coruña
13'⚽ (pen)Javi Ros · Zaragoza
30'🟨Diogo Verdasca · Zaragoza
30'⚽Domingos Duarte · RC Deportivo La Coruña
43'🟨Daniel Lasure · Zaragoza
44'⚽ (pen)Quique · RC Deportivo La Coruña
62'🟨James Igbekeme · Zaragoza
70'🟨Marc Gual · Zaragoza
89'🟨Alberto Benito · Zaragoza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1
9Shots9
4On target3
1Corners4
11Fouls17
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRC Deportivo La CoruñaZaragoza
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.25
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.26
box share (last 5)0.650.43
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days198.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Riazor
15.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.171.83
elo1515.271448.34
elo momentum (last 5)21.89-12.34
eye test v10.01-0.85
eye trend v10.270.03
first sub minute (last 10)63.8054.10
form points (last 5)9.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.321.06
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
keeper form v10.810.64
league points32.0016.00
league rank5.0020.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win2.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.8072.40
possession avg (last 5)46.0053.80
rest days8.317.00
scorer concentration0.270.29
season ppg1.880.94
skill v1-0.68-0.20
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.302.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.00
state index0.51-0.62
sterile dominance v1-0.390.44
threat rate (last 10)0.230.20
threat rate (last 3)0.260.16
threat rate (last 5)0.240.19
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.80