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Las Palmas 1–1 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2018 · Sun, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gorka Sagues Oscoz, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas win42%2.30
Draw32%3.05
Tenerife win26%3.72

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Filip Malbašić · Tenerife
18'⚽Sergio Araujo · Las Palmas
22'🟨Danny Blum · Las Palmas
22'🟨Raul Camara · Tenerife
29'🟨David García · Las Palmas
37'🟨Camille · Tenerife
79'🟨David García · Las Palmas
79'🟥David García · Las Palmas
80'🟨David Timor · Las Palmas
85'🟨Suso · Tenerife
85'⚽ (pen)Suso · Tenerife
90'🟨Sergio Araujo · Las Palmas
90'🟨Bryan Acosta · Tenerife

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots17
2On target6
7Corners3
16Fouls20
4Yellow cards5
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLas PalmasTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.27
box share (last 5)0.510.46
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days29.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGran Canaria
106.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.952.84
elo1400.481439.72
elo momentum (last 5)-23.29-11.63
eye test v1-0.270.13
eye trend v1-0.090.02
first sub minute (last 10)52.5057.60
form points (last 5)3.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.101.03
keeper form v10.550.67
league points23.0017.00
league rank12.0019.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win7.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.6077.60
possession avg (last 5)58.4051.00
rest days6.928.88
scorer concentration0.350.33
season ppg1.351.00
skill v10.750.15
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.20
state index-0.97-0.69
sterile dominance v11.09-0.44
threat rate (last 10)0.200.30
threat rate (last 3)0.170.29
threat rate (last 5)0.170.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.20